Bracketology – March 8th, 2011 (Haters Edition)

Tonight I’m going to call out some bubble teams who I don’t understand people’s fascination with.

(Keep in mind these projections are only partially a reflection of my opinion on where a team should be, but mostly where I think they are and will end up on Selection Sunday.)

On to my calling out teams:

Lets countdown teams I hold particular grudge against for their overrated-ness:

3. St. Mary’s- Let me begin with the Gaels. The Gaels lost tonight to Gonzaga and continued a considerable slide. Lets consider this, if the Gaels didn’t make their run in the tournament last year would they even be in the discussion for an atlarge after losing tonight? Yeah, probably not. That’s exactly why I’m not on board. St. Mary’s is still my last team in, probably because I and everyone else like them better then the two clowns I’ll talk about next. Lets rundown St. Mary’s resume.

After tonight the Gaels will probably go into the tournament with an RPI in the low to mid 50’s, not bad. I’ll admit that its very bubble worthy, especially this year when there will be many teams who make it as an atlarge with a worse RPI. The SOS is rather bland sitting around 125 or so. St. Mary’s can hold their hat on a victory over St. John’s on opening night of the season at home. Yes, impressive but the Gaels have come a long way since then, so have the Johnnies.

Since that game, the Gaels resume is pretty boring. They have had two top 100 wins, Long Beach State (90) and Gonzaga another former bubble team. (Gonzaga ain’t what they have been this year and LB State, please son) Additionally the Gaels had matchups with good teams Vanderbilt, SD State, BYU and I guess Utah State. They lost all of those.

So, if they’ve only had those two wins, and they have a formerly top 50 RPI, then they must have beaten everyone else right? WRONG. The Gaels lost at Portland and San Diego. I’ll give them a break on Portland, they aren’t that bad. But San Diego? Are you kidding me? They are one of the absolute worst teams in the country, they have 4 wins. 1 against the Gaels and only three others all year. Its just one game, but god is it bad.

Ok, in the end the Gaels aren’t quite the undeserving team that the below two are, but are they better than other bubble teams? I really don’t know. Honestly I could see them missing the tournament, and they should be firmly on the bubble right now.

2. Memphis- OK, talk about names. Memphis is a name that is getting name popping. They are getting the bump for their good RPI of 38 right now, but please it doesn’t tell the story. Memphis has nine top 100 wins, ok pretty good. They also have earned four of those on the road. Pretty good too. But who were these nine? Well seven of those victories came in CUSA. That’s part of the problem. The other problem is, none of those wins came against teams that are locks for the tournament. (Yeah I know Gonzaga won the WCC now, but they are a bubble worthy team) In fact, the worst part is that they have counteracted them with three different bad losses. Losing to SMU, Rice and ECU ain’t going to cut it boys. A 10-6 record in CUSA is OK, but not great. Its NIT good, not NCAA tournament good, even if their are a bunch of bubble teams in the conference.

The worst part about Memphis is what they did out of conference. Well they beat Miami and Gonzaga. That’s it. Miami isn’t sniffing the tournament this year and they snuck by them at home. They did go to Gonzaga and win, but as we’ve pointed out, that’s not enough nor that impressive. Otherwise they beat up on powderpuffs and got manhandled by Kansas, Georgetown and Tennessee. The fact is, Memphis is hanging their hat on UAB wins, and Gonzaga, boosting their RPI. I do not buy into the CUSA phenomenon this year. Its not a bad conference, but the RPI’s are inflated.

In the end, I do consider Memphis a contender for a bid, but I’m not sold on them being any good. Their resume is alot weaker then it appears, and they need to run deep in the CUSA tournament this week for a shot.

1. Alabama- This is the team I love to pick on. The fact is they aren’t any good and its about time someone realizes it. If I hear another idiot on tv or something tell me that they are a LOCK for the tournament then I’m going to punch the television set. Alabama is nothing, they are the definition of a team with nothing to offer but a 12-4 conference record. OK, its the SEC and the SEC is probably the fifth best conference. Ohhhhh yeahhhh, they have divisions over there. Well that explains it. The SEC west was arguably worse than the SOUTHERN CONFERENCE SOUTH DIVISION this year.

Anthony Grant might be a good coach, but that doesn't mean Alabama should play in the NCAA Tournament

Alabama has ten matchups with those not so intimidating foes and managed an 8-2 record. Yawn. Honestly that’s not good. Any other bubble team would have beaten that.

Ok, they beat Kentucky at home. Oh yeah, everyone beat Kentucky at home this year. God the Wildcats lost at Arkansas and Mississippi too from the West. Ok, then they went to Tennessee and won. Yeah, ok better. Problem is the Vols are only a bubble team now. At the time it was great, now its just nice. The Vols lost 6 of the last 9, so no powerhouse there.

Ok, then Alabama beat someone else. Yes they beat fellow bubble team at home Georgia this week. This is the sole reason they are still alive in my opinion. Problem is for Bama, Georgia is only a bubble team too, and they will most likely face them again Friday in the second round. Should the Bulldogs win this one, then say bye bye to the yellow hammer.

Alabama’s nonconference performance is really just atrocious. For all four top 100 wins, they have four sub 100 losses. Some argue they are getting better, I say nay. In the last four games the Crimson Tide have needed a buzzer beater to beat Auburn at home (EWWWWWW!), then lost at Mississippi (a team not in the tourney race and who proceeded to lose to Auburn a few days later, EWWWW!), then they went to Gainesville and got run out of the gym. Finally they came home and beat Georgia, who hasn’t played well lately. Ok, Alabama still can prove me wrong by getting quality wins in the SEC tournament and maybe eventually winning a game or two in the NCAA’s, but believe me they aren’t good enough to do it. Maybe just maybe they’ll beat Georgia, but they ain’t beating a good team in the SEC or the NCAA’s. They are deserving to be in the last four out now, but not in like so many others say.

For the love of god, let them lose to the Dawgs Friday and spare me flipping out for them getting a bid over many other worthy teams.

Ok, so tonight as I’ve pointed out Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s and locked up a bid. Look for them to gain an 11ish seed depending on what happens this weekend.

Wofford upset Charleston for the Southern title and return to the NCAA’s for a second straight year. Remember last year when they gave Wisconsin a run in the first round, losing by two. Wofford, dare I say could beat Alabama, and is very close to be a good team. They are just behind a step, missing one piece from being a team that could do damage come tourney time. Instead I see them scaring a high seed next week, but falling narrowly again like last year.

Also St. Peter’s beat Iona, another upset to earn a bid. Yeah St. Peter’s beat Alabama.

Finally Old Dominion did all the bubble teams a favor and beat VCU tonight. VCU was impressive and earned a speck of life on the bubble, but really need a miracle. ODU is dangerous again, and god its beautiful watching them rebound. Its amazing watching a team abuse the boards like that, and given the right matchups this team is capable of a sweet 16 or maybe even further run. Matchups tho, matchups.

Locks in my opinion:

Big East (11):

Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, St. John’s, West Virginia, Marquette, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown

ACC (3):

UNC, Duke, Florida State

Big Ten (4):

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue

Big 12 (5):

Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M

Pac Ten (3):

Washington, UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (3):

UNLV, BYU, San Diego State

SEC (3):

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida

Colonial (2):

George Mason, Old Dominion

A10 (2):

Xavier, Temple

All other conference are locked it with atleast one team: 22 Conferences and Bids (including five with multi-bid opportunities)

Locked Bids: 58

Bubble spots available: 10

Teams Alive, 21 – 3 automatic bids=18): Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Colorado, Baylor, Washington State, USC, Colorado State,  (Butler), Richmond, Alabama, Memphis, (UAB), UTEP,  (Utah State),  St. Mary’s, VCU

(***)=projected conference champ receiving auto bid

TAKE A LOOK AT THE ACTUAL BRACKET IN THIS LINK BELOW!!!



1 Seeds-

Ohio State

Kansas

Pittsburgh

Notre Dame

2 Seeds-

Duke

BYU

San Diego State

North Carolina

3 Seeds-

Texas

Purdue

Syracuse

Wisconsin

4 Seeds-

Louisville

Florida

Georgetown

St. John’s

5 Seeds-

Arizona

UConn

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

6 Seeds-

West Virginia

Texas A&M

Xavier

Missouri

7 Seeds-

Temple

Cincinnati

Villanova

Kansas State

8 Seeds-

George Mason

UNLV

UCLA

Old Dominion

9 Seeds-

Utah State

Illinois

Florida State

Boston College

10 Seeds-

Washington

Tennessee

Marquette

Richmond

11 Seeds-

Michigan State

Gonzaga

Georgia

Clemson

12 Seeds-

Butler

Michigan

UAB

Virginia Tech

Colorado

St. Mary’s

13 Seeds-

Belmont

Harvard

Oakland

Indiana State

14 Seeds-

Bucknell

Long Island

Wofford

Long Beach State

15 Seeds-

St. Peter’s

Kent State

Morehead State

Northern Colorado

16 Seeds-

Boston University

UNC Asheville

North Texas

Texas Southern

McNeese State

Bethune Cookman

Last Four In-

Michigan

Virginia Tech

Colorado

St. Mary’s

First Four Out-

Alabama

Memphis

USC

UTEP

Next Four Out-

Washington State

VCU

Nebraska

Baylor

Also Considered:

Colorado State

Bids by Conference:

Big East-11

ACC-6

Big 12-6

Big Ten-6

SEC-5

Pac Ten-3

A10-3

MWC-3

Colonial-2

WCC-2

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: