Bracketology- March 6th, 2011 (thru March 5th Games)

Unexpectedly this Saturday alot of bubble teams did well. Although some did fall (many to fellow bubble teams), it wasn’t the bubble slaying we are used to of late. As a result the changes on the bubble aren’t that big, but some teams have now clinched themselves no chance at an atlarge.

Lets run through this day of action and analyze the games and how they effect the bracket:

Clemson beat Virginia Tech in a huge bubble game. The Tigers handled the Hokies all the way and improved their position on the bubble as a result. The Hokies now have lost two in a row to end the regular season after beating Duke. The Hokies will probably play Georgia Tech on Thursday in the ACC tournament and must win that. If they do they would face a beatable Florida State team. Virginia Tech is still in, and will probably make it if they beat GaTech

Brad Brownell's Clemson Tigers got a big win Saturday against Virginia Tech, a fellow bubble team

Thursday. Clemson on the other hand now has a bye in the ACC tournament. They will probably play Boston College in the ACC tournament on Friday. If they win that, then I think they are solidly in the tournament. If they don’t then it will be very close for the Tigers.

George Mason advanced in the CAA tournament and helped out the bubble teams.

Kansas escaped Missouri with a win and continues a strong hold on a 1 seed. Missouri should feel good still as they’ll get a good seed come next Sunday.

What a wild game for West Virginia and Louisville, as the Mountaineers stole one from Louisville. I suggest you look out for the highlight of that one. Both teams are in for good seeds so no need to elaborate here. Just a great wild finish to this game.

Illinois avoided disaster by throttling Indiana on Senior Day. I think Illinois is safe and should be dancing now.

Alabama picked up a big win over Georgia and stopped the free-fall from the last three games where they played badly.

Will Anthony Grant's Crimson Tide be smiling on Selection Sunday?

Alabama’s resume isn’t exactly great still, and for now I still have them out. Alabama needs to go to the SEC tournament and get another quality win. Alabama will most likely play one of the tournament teams from the east division this week, so I think they need to win that to get in. Georgia should feel pretty good still and I consider them to be a lock, even if they lose the first round of the SEC tournament.

Michigan picked up a huge win on Senior by downing their rivals Michigan State for a season sweep. The Wolverines have been hot lately and look to be close to earning a bid. Michigan could see a matchup with Illinois in the Big Ten tournament, and even if they lose it, I think they might have enough, it’ll depend on everything else going on around them.

VCU beat Drexel, but for VCU to make the tournament they will probably still need to win it all in the CAA. Tomorrow they will George Mason for a chance to make the finals of the CAA.

Missouri State beat Creighton, and moved on the MVC final. Missouri State is going to need to win the whole thing though to dance in all likelihood as they will face Indiana State, who upset Wichita State today in the semi’s.

UTEP stayed alive as they beat SMU on the road. The Miners have work to do, but atlarge hopes are alive still. They will probably have to knock off some of the other contenders in CUSA and make the finals, and that might not be enough.

Memphis almost ended all hope of an atlarge bid when they barely escaped against CUSA worst Tulane at home. Memphis has played very poorly of late and their resume is completely based off their CUSA successes. For now they remain out and like UTEP, they need a very good run in the tournament to get an atlarge bid.

Iowa upset Purdue and ended the Boilermakers hope of a one seed. They are now in trouble of losing a two seed as well, but a strong showing or title in the Big Ten Tourney and they should still have it despite sleepwalking in Iowa City on senior day.

(Click Below to Read More Plus Tournament Seeds)

Our first ticket was punched when UNC-Asheville upset Coastal Carolina. Coastal at one point looked like a marginal atlarge contender but feel apart at the end of the season and will be headed to the NIT. UNC Asheville will likely end up as a 16 seed and could play in one of the play in games on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Washington State missed out on a chance to score a big victory over UCLA. They had a big lead in this one but let it erode away and eventually lost in overtime. The Cougars aren’t in great shape now. They have some good wins, but 9-9 in the Pac Ten this year isn’t going to cut it when you didn’t beat anyone with an RPI better than 70 OOC. If they can make a run in the Pac Ten tournament they might get some consideration, but for now aren’t in great shape.

Wichita State lost to Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Tournament and ended their hopes of a tourney bid. This sets up Indiana State vs. Missouri State for the championship tomorrow with a bid on the line.

Belmont also punched their ticket today as they blew out North Florida. Belmont should be a thirteen seed come Selection Sunday and could be a scary matchup in the first round.

Butler beat Cleveland State and advanced in the Horizon League Tournament. Cleveland State is out of it now, and Butler advances with a chance to win the Horizon tomorrow and comfort all the bubble teams who could have a bid stolen by them.

Seton Hall upset Marquette today and earned their second straight big win. Marquette can’t feel great about this, but I have them in lock status, so they should be alright still. Marquette doesn’t have any losses worse than this and will probably face a lower tier Big East team in the first round on Tuesday. Even a loss there and they’d sneak in.

Harvard beat Princeton tonight to set up a playoff for the title which will likely take place Friday or Saturday at a neutral location. I think Harvard will win that game, but you never know. The loser will likely end up in the NIT after a solid year for both schools.

UAB won again at home vs ECU, who has knocked off some CUSA contenders lately. UAB is the conference regular season champ, and could earn an atlarge bid if they make it a ways in the CUSA tournament. At this point they are the best shot for an atlarge from CUSA.

St. John’s rebounded from the Seton Hall loss to beat South Florida. The Johnnies finish 12-6 in conference play and will likely have the five seed for the Big East Tournament, where they would play the winner of Seton Hall-Rutgers on Wednesday.

Steve Lavin's Red Storm got back in the winning column with a victory over South Florida on Saturday

Tulsa upset Southern Miss, and the Golden Eagles chances of an atlarge bid basically are gone now.  They need to win CUSA.

Morehead State also clinched a bid this evening with a victory over Tennessee Tech. Morehead State will end up somewhere around a 15 seed on Selection Sunday.

Colorado beat Nebraska in a big bubble battle in the Big 12. The Buffs helped their position on this one, and along with some of their big wins, they are now the team with the best chance from the Big 12 Bubble to make it. Nebraska on the other hand, is in trouble and will need a big time run in the Big 12 Tournament. Colorado probably needs to win one, maybe two if the bubble shrinks.

Texas beat Baylor, and put the Bears in a tough position like Nebraska. Both Nebraska and Baylor finish 7-9 in the Big 12 and that’s hard to validate to the selection committee. Like Nebraska Baylor needs to make serious noise in the Big 12 Tourney.

UNC beat Duke tonight, and the Tar Heels have now won the ACC regular season title. The fact is UNC is playing as well as anyone in the country right, and they are now moving up in the seeding. I think UNC can grab a two seed by winning the ACC tournament, while Duke can still grab a one seed with the same title. For now, I’m going to have to guess UNC wins it, because they look alot better than Duke right now.

Colorado State lost at San Diego State tonight and missed a chance to get a badly needed big win. The Rams will still have a chance in the MWC Tournament, but they need a big time run and some big wins over the three teams ahead of them in the conference.

USC picked up a big win over Washington on the road and moved quite close to the field. The Trojans have some great wins and very bad loses. Its very hard to put them in the field unless they probably make the Pac Ten finals, but they have some things going for them right now, like being hot. They could do it.

Locks in my opinion:

Big East:

Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, St. John’s, West Virginia, Marquette, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown

ACC:

UNC, Duke

Big Ten:

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue

Big 12:

Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M

Pac Ten:

Washington, UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West:

UNLV, BYU, San Diego State

SEC:

Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida

Colonial:

George Mason, Old Dominion

A10:

Xavier, Temple

All other conference are locked it with atleast one team: 22 Conferences and Bids (including five with multi-bid opportunities)

Locked Bids: 59

Bubble spots available: 9

Teams Alive, 20 – 4 automatic bids=16): Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Colorado, Baylor, Washington State, USC, Colorado State,  (Butler), Richmond, Alabama, Memphis, (UAB), UTEP,  (Utah State), Gonzaga, (St. Mary’s)

(***)=projected conference champ receiving auto bid

TAKE A LOOK AT THE ACTUAL BRACKET IN THIS LINK BELOW!!!!

Bracket Match 6 2011

1 Seeds-

Ohio State

Kansas

Pittsburgh

Notre Dame

2 Seeds-

Duke

BYU

San Diego State

North Carolina

3 Seeds-

Texas

Purdue

Syracuse

Wisconsin

4 Seeds-

Louisville

Florida

Georgetown

St. John’s

5 Seeds-

Arizona

UConn

West Virginia

Vanderbilt

6 Seeds-

Kentucky

Texas A&M

Xavier

Missouri

7 Seeds-

George Mason

Temple

Cincinnati

Villanova

8 Seeds-

Kansas State

UNLV

UCLA

Old Dominion

9 Seeds-

Utah State

Illinois

Florida State

Tennessee

10 Seeds-

Washington

Boston College

Marquette

Richmond

11 Seeds-

Michigan State

St. Mary’s

Georgia

Clemson

12 Seeds-

Butler

Michigan

Gonzaga

UAB

Virginia Tech

Colorado

13 Seeds-

Missouri State

Harvard

Belmont

Charleston

14 Seeds-

Long Beach State

Vermont

Oakland

Bucknell

15 Seeds-

Long Island

Morehead State

Fairfield

Kent State

16 Seeds-

UNC Asheville

Texas Southern

Bethune Cookman

McNeese State

Florida Atlantic

Northern Colorado

Last Four In-

Michigan

Virginia Tech

Gonzaga

Colorado

First Four Out-

Alabama

Memphis

USC

UTEP

Next Four Out-

Baylor

Nebraska

Colorado State

Washington State

Also Considered:

NONE!

Bids by Conference:

Big East-11

ACC-6

Big 12-6

Big Ten-6

SEC-5

Pac Ten-3

A10-3

MWC-3

Colonial-2

WCC-2

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: