Bracketology-February 25th, 2011

It’s Friday, and after a crazy week some teams have stepped up but many more have taken falls.

In my Wednesday night article I outlined all the action through then, but last night some important games of note took place.

Gonzaga upset St. Mary’s on the road, and I’ve put them back in the field as of today, but they are on thin ice. The Zags and St. Mary’s are both fairly equal in resume, so for them both to make it, they will both have to win out to a conference championship game. If they both can do that, then the loser of the championship game has a good shot of picking up one of the last bids.

Penn State beat Northwestern and stayed in the hunt. They play Ohio State at home tomorrow and if they can atleast not get embarrassed, then it won’t hurt them to lose. Obviously a win would be huge but I’m not sure that’s likely. The Nittany Lions have awful lot of losses and a few good wins, so if they don’t beat Ohio State they need to win some other games for sure.

The Horizon League took a big hit last night when Cleveland State and Valpo lost at home, putting their chances of an at-large bid near zero. If the Horizon wants to be a multi-bid league then one of those two better win the conference tournament while Butler sneaks in.

Marquette upset UConn and put themselves alot closer to locking up a bid. The Golden Eagles are the most vulnerable Big East team in the race for bids, but last night might have punched the ticket for 11 Big East teams dancing.

Florida beat Georgia, and put the Dawgs a little bit closer to the edge. For now they remain in with a solid resume, but they need to take care of business against bottom feeders South Carolina and LSU at home this week.

I read an article this morning on ESPN about Alabama’s at-large prospects and how Joey Brackets thinks they are close to locking it up. He has them as a ten seed and well into the field. I think Lunardi is very smart and knows more than most anybody in the world when it comes to these brackets, but I disagree. I have Alabama out still, barely, but I just don’t understand the fascination with them. Its been stated time and time again that your conference record doesn’t matter, and that your whole body of work does. Alabama might be 11-2 in the SEC, but I could name somewhere between 60-70 other teams in America that’d do the same with that schedule. Alabama has two wins against teams in or even close to the field. Add in Mississippi at home, and they have three top 100 wins. They have four bad losses on top of that. How can I value a win in the SEC East over a win in any of the mid majors? Auburn is Auburn, LSU is LSU, and they both stink. Add in Mississippi State and Arkansas who both aren’t good at all either, and there is one easy schedule. Alabama has Mississippi and Florida on the road this week, and finishes with Georgia at home, so they’ll have a chance to prove me wrong or right. If they go 1-2, and then don’t beat an NCAA tournament team from the SEC in the SEC tournament then I don’t know how they could be put in the field. I know I’m not alone in my feelings about Alabama, but Lunardi isn’t one who agrees. We’ll see soon enough.

This weekend sets up to be big for a lot of bubble teams, so be sure to check in afterwards and see where teams stand.

1 Seeds-

Ohio State

Duke

Pittsburgh

Texas

2 Seeds-

Kansas

San Diego State

BYU

Purdue

3 Seeds-

Notre Dame

Wisconsin

Georgetown

Florida

4 Seeds-

Louisville

Syracuse

UNC

Villanova

5 Seeds-

Vanderbilt

St. John’s

UConn

Texas A&M

6 Seeds-

Arizona

Kentucky

West Virginia

Missouri

7 Seeds-

Temple

Cincinnati

George Mason

Xavier

8 Seeds-

Old Dominion

UNLV

UCLA

Utah State

9 Seeds-

Tennessee

Washington

Florida State

Kansas State

10 Seeds-

Illinois

Marquette

Michigan State

Virginia Tech

11 Seeds-

Memphis

Butler

Georgia

Richmond

12 Seeds-

St. Mary’s

Gonzaga

Boston College

Clemson

Colorado State

Minnesota

13 Seeds-

Missouri State

Harvard

Belmont

Charleston

14 Seeds-

Vermont

Coastal Carolina

Oakland

Bucknell

15 Seeds-

Murray State

Kent State

Long Beach State

Fairfield

16 Seeds-

Texas Southern

Bethune Cookman

McNeese State

Florida Atlantic

Long Island

Montana

Last Four In-

Clemson

Boston College

Colorado State

Minnesota

Last Four Out-

Alabama

UAB

Southern Miss

Nebraska

Next Four Out-

Penn State

VCU

Maryland

Baylor

Others Considered-

Michigan

Wichita State

Duquesne

Oklahoma State

Dayton

Wichita State

UTEP

Washington State

Marshall

Princeton

Colorado

BUBBLE GAMES THIS WEEKEND-

Saturday:

Missouri at Kansas State

James Madison at VCU

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Wichita State at Missouri State

Boston College at Virginia

Nebraska at Iowa State

Loyola Chicago at Butler

Miami at FSU

Memphis at UTEP

Alabama at Mississippi

Wake Forest at Clemson

Texas at Colorado

Michigan at Minnesota

Columbia at Princeton

UAB at Houston

Colorado State at Air Force

South Carolina at Georgia

Iowa at Illinois

Southern Miss at UCF

Richmond at Charlotte

Duquesne at St Louis

New Mexico at TCU

Duke at Virginia Tech

Texas A&M at Baylor

Portland at St. Mary’s

Sunday:

Xavier at Dayton

Providence at Marquette

Maryland at UNC

Washington State at Washington

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